89.5 to 93.5%Simulation
A book under every scenario
of the time the twelve month 90% ranges held, across arrears states
- What was observed
- A loan book projected twelve months ahead, through arrears states.
- What a generic approach says
- One projected line for each scenario.
- What the engine read
- Running the book many times, with the uncertainty in its own estimates carried through, kept 90% ranges holding 89.5 to 93.5% of the time, against 84.5 to 85.5% before.
- What it meant for the decision
- Scenarios and capital decisions can be compared with ranges a committee can rely on, at most 8% wider.