63%Public bank data
Seeing missed repayments coming
of first missed repayments flagged in the three months before, at 1.6% false alerts
- What was observed
- Account behaviour for borrowers with loans, over several years.
- What a generic approach says
- An instalment rule: flag accounts that no longer cover their repayment.
- What the engine read
- Comparing each borrower with its own history and its peers flagged 63% of first missed repayments at 1.6% false alerts, on years held out from tuning. The instalment rule alone reached 57% at 0.7%.
- What it meant for the decision
- Once the cost of each call and the team's capacity were counted, the existing rule was hard to beat. The honest comparison is the one to ask any early warning vendor for.