0.92Real bank data from an open research dataset
Offers before they ask
AUC for next year's first time borrowers, ranked out of time; account age alone gave 0.85
- What was observed
- 3,527 customers' account behaviour in one year; 107 of them (3.0%) took their first loan the next. No offers were ever made.
- What a generic approach says
- Rank customers by how long they have banked with you: AUC 0.85.
- What the engine read
- Ranking each customer from their own account behaviour, trained on one year and tested on the next, reached 0.92. A separate risk model ranked who could repay at 0.80, tested on 117 loans with only 16 defaults.
- What it meant for the decision
- Offers can go first to the customers most likely to want credit and able to repay, with eligibility and risk checked first. The gain over account age is real but modest, and the risk test is small.