The renewal book.

Which renewals need attention over the next twelve months? Luminnovate forecasts delinquency across every facility due for renewal, ranks them by risk and value, plans offers as campaigns with holdouts, and feeds expected losses into provisions and capital.

Renewals arrive one file at a time, so the book's exposure to the next twelve months of renewals is rarely seen whole. The few facilities that carry most of the risk get the same attention as the rest.

Renewal calendarNext twelve months

Illustrative example. 143 facilities due over twelve months; 8 need review, $1.7m of exposure.

What Luminnovate does

Forecasts every renewalDelinquency forecasting for each facility due, from changes against its own history, with a range and the drivers behind it.
Ranks by risk and valueThe renewals that need a credit officer first, the ones that can be renewed as they are, and the ones worth growing.
Plans offers and provisions togetherOffers to existing customers run as campaigns with a holdout, and expected losses from the forecast feed provisions and capital planning.

A case

A result from Luminnovate's work, labelled by source. Unlike the illustration above, these figures are not invented.

89.5 to 93.5%Simulation

A book under every scenario

of the time the twelve month 90% ranges held, across arrears states

What was observed: A loan book projected twelve months ahead, through arrears states.
What a generic approach says: One projected line for each scenario.
What the engine read: Running the book many times, with the uncertainty in its own estimates carried through, kept 90% ranges holding 89.5 to 93.5% of the time, against 84.5 to 85.5% before.
What it meant for the decision: Scenarios and capital decisions can be compared with ranges a committee can rely on, at most 8% wider.

Start with next year's renewal list. We forecast it on your own history and show where the risk sits. For one customer at a time, see renewals and existing customers.

Book a conversation